Can Bitcoin Achieve a Positive Monthly Close Above $64,300?

Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s summer liquidity issues may continue into September, yet a decrease in interest rates could potentially spark a significant bull market in early 2025.

August’s Bullish Potential for Bitcoin

For Bitcoin (BTC) to conclude August positively, it must close above $64,300, equating to a gain of over 7% from its current position of $59,960.

The monthly close remains challenging to forecast; however, the latest market movements hint at optimism. Analysts from Bitfinex commented:

“Bitcoin reclaiming recently lost key levels like $64,000 and $61,500 are bullish signs… The current market is still illiquid, and we continuously have low-volume volatile moves. The current move lower is an unwinding of perps and spot long positions that had entered the market before the Jackson Hole conference.”

Currently, Bitcoin faces challenges trading above the psychological barrier of $60,000, with a noted decline exceeding 12% for the monthly chart.

Struggles with Resistance at $63,900

Experts warned that the liquidity issues prevalent during summer might extend into September, leading to potential downside volatility.

Consequently, Bitcoin may struggle to surpass the $63,900 resistance level. Bitfinex analysts further elaborated:

“Price is a reflection of historical market transactions; we must look under the hood. Price rallied up to the Short Term Holder (STH) realized price of around $63,900 currently, and thus, we also saw some profit-taking from the STH cohort.”

Historically, Bitcoin’s returns in September have been negative, averaging -4.78% since 2013.

Potential for a Bitcoin Bull Run Amid Lower Interest Rates

Bitcoin’s price remains relatively stable between $58,000 and $64,000, despite summer’s illiquidity.

However, a future period of reduced interest rates could catalyze a parabolic spike in Bitcoin’s value, according to Kristian Hapalampiev, the structured products lead at Nexo. He expressed:

“Should lower interest rates come into effect to create a strong tailwind for BTC, then the bull market may only be taking a breather now, before intense growth returns in early-to-mid 2025.”

Investor sentiment appears to be leaning toward an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with the next meeting scheduled for September 18.

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis-point rate cut currently stands at 65.5%, while a 50 basis-point cut is at 34.5%.