Quantile Regression Model Suggests Potential $275K Bitcoin Price by November 2025

A recent analysis by a Bitcoin researcher indicates that a quasi-exponential decay trend could push Bitcoin’s price to as high as $300,000 in 2025.

Following a decline of 3.45% on September 30, Bitcoin (BTC) missed a bullish engulfing candle pattern for the first time since January 2023. Nonetheless, a year-long bull flag remains in effect, and a bullish breakout could occur if BTC closes above the $68,000-$70,000 range on the monthly chart.

Projected Bitcoin Cycle Top at $275K in November 2025

According to researcher Smithson With, a novel method employing quantile regression can be applied to predict the cycle top price of Bitcoin. Through this technique, With analyzes BTC’s cumulative data to produce quantiles or percentiles, providing insights into Bitcoin’s returns over a specific timeframe.

This method considers factors like supply, volatility, distribution over time, and the cryptocurrency’s ability to survive in various risk situations. Unlike standard linear regression, quantile regression focuses on extremes, particularly the 99th percentile in this instance, allowing for more nuanced predictions.

With explains that the current forecast represents a simulation based on a 99th percentile power-law regression model utilizing Bitcoin price data from as early as July 2013. He notes:

“You see that the model trajectory and Nov 1st, 2025 price prediction changes dramatically — but it clearly forms a quasi-exponential decay trend.”

This quasi-exponential decay trend suggests that the deviation from the actual trend has either been halved or doubled over time. Consequently, With anticipates that the peak price will be reached around November 2025, potentially hitting $275,000. Further fine-tuning of the study will help establish a cycle top value ranging from $250,000 to $300,000 in 2025.

Important Bitcoin Price Support at $63.2K

Bitcoin has swiftly bounced back to $64,000 after experiencing a drop close to $62,825 on September 30.

Luckshury, a lead analyst at the trading platform Exocharts, emphasizes that Bitcoin’s upward trend is likely to persist as long as the critical support level at $63,200 is maintained. This level represents the point-of-control (POC) based on recent upward formation, according to the trader.

The POC is defined as the price point where the majority of trading activity has occurred. A movement beyond the immediate resistance at $64,700 would indicate the beginning of the next bullish phase. Conversely, a drop below $63,200 could alter the trend and potentially lead to a correction phase.

This content is not intended as financial advice. All investments and trading activities involve risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making decisions.