Three Factors Indicating Bitcoin’s Potential Activity in September

Despite Bitcoin’s inability to surpass the psychological threshold of $60,000 in recent weeks, long-term holders (LTHs) are displaying a positive outlook as the year progresses into 2024.

Current Market Context

Bitcoin’s price has remained below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for two consecutive weeks; however, a rebound above $60,000 occurred within the past 24 hours. Analysis shows that long-term holders are maintaining their bullish stance amid the prevailing price movements. Is there potential for a breakout as we approach September?

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Cap Surpasses $3 Billion

In 2024, Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the 200-day EMA on only three occasions, with July 4 marking the first bearish close beneath this key indicator. The BTC/USD pair rebounded above the EMA in less than ten days, and within just a few hours this time, indicating a gradual increase in bullish momentum.

Investors in Bitcoin are categorized into short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs), each adopting different trading strategies:

• Short-term holders (STHs): Engage in day trading or scalping, typically focusing on quick returns over a short timeframe. This group largely consists of retail investors.
• Long-term holders (LTHs): Implement a buy-and-hold strategy for at least six months, often representing high-net-worth individuals or large organizations, especially in the context of Bitcoin ETFs.

Recent statistics show that the realized market capitalization for LTHs increased positively by $3 billion, reflecting a trend last noted in December 2023. The Bitcoin realized cap measures the net profits minus losses incurred, indicating the overall value transferred into the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Miners’ Selling Pressure Stabilizes

Bitcoin miners have reduced their selling of BTC through exchanges, with net flow decreasing in the second quarter of 2024. Recently, the selling pressure has plateaued, suggesting miners are beginning to shift towards accumulation.

The charts indicate a significant reduction in miners’ selling activities throughout August, which may result in price stabilization before September.

Growing Stablecoin Supply Ratio Signals Bullish Potential

A crucial argument for bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is the rise in global liquidity, particularly the global M2 money supply. The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) also provides insights into available liquidity for purchasing Bitcoin.

SSR is defined as the total crypto market cap relative to the market cap of all stablecoins. A decrease in this ratio indicates increased stablecoin availability, suggesting more liquidity for asset purchases.

Currently, the SSR ratio mirrors levels seen in early February 2024, indicating substantial liquidity in the market that could potentially trigger a price rally. Notably, the stablecoin market cap has reached an unprecedented high of $165 billion, confirming enhanced liquidity in the crypto markets.

Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Resistance Levels

Following a lackluster weekly close, Bitcoin has seen a notable recovery, showing a 4.50% increase over the past two days. The price is currently attempting to break out of a descending broadening channel pattern, which could indicate bullish activity.

However, Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $61,700, near a convergence of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, which could hinder any bullish breakout. A successful breach above this resistance and a subsequent move past $62,737 could signal a “Change of Character” (ChoCH) in market trends, hinting at potential reversals in the coming weeks.