Potential for a Bitcoin Rally in Q4 Based on Historical Trends

As we approach the fourth quarter, historical price patterns suggest a promising phase for Bitcoin.

Current Bitcoin Performance Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) has started off 2024 on a strong note, achieving an over 40% increase year-to-date. This surge can be attributed to several positive developments, such as:

• Launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S.
• The halving event, which cut miner rewards by 50%.

Unlike prior cycles, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs before the last halving, prompting many analysts to predict a potential “supercycle” within this halving year.

With over 123 days since the Bitcoin halving, the price has yet to outpace its pre-halving record. Currently, Bitcoin is down 13% over the past month, leading to discussions about a possible rally in Q4 2024.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt indicated that this market cycle could soon become the longest duration since a halving event, suggesting that reaching a new all-time high may take longer or may not happen at all.

Analysis from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin typically has positive returns in the fourth quarter during halving years, achieving gains of 58% and 168% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. From 2013 to 2023, BTC has reported positive returns in eight out of eleven years, averaging an 88% gain.

Historically, there is a 73% likelihood that Bitcoin will experience a rally in Q4 2024. CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju noted that during the last halving cycle, the upward trend started in Q4.

“In the last Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull rally began in Q4. Whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance.”

According to Young Ju, Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, which may pave the way for a significant upward movement entering the last quarter of 2024.

Resistance Levels for Bitcoin’s Price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates that Bitcoin’s price action has recently established higher lows on the daily chart but remains below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the past week.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model by IntoTheBlock shows that Bitcoin faces considerable resistance as it attempts recovery, compared to the support available on the downside.

The 200-day EMA is situated around $59,423, near the price range of $59,500 to $61,300, where approximately 817,770 BTC was acquired by about 1.51 million addresses.

This suggests that substantial demand-side liquidity is essential to elevate BTC’s price past the 200-day EMA and subsequently above the 50- and 100-day EMAs at $61,383 and $62,323, respectively, enabling a breakout from the existing consolidation.

If these resistance levels are not surpassed, analyst Mark Cullen posits that Bitcoin’s price could decline towards $57,500 or potentially revisit the $54,500 level.

Note: This content does not provide financial advice. Investments and trading carry risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.