An analysis conducted by Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, focused on Bitcoin’s (BTC) Unrealized Profit Ratio among both new and established whales. He indicated that large Bitcoin holders have not yet accrued enough profit to consider selling their substantial holdings.

According to Ju, newly minted Bitcoin whales—those who have held the asset for five months or less—would only achieve a profit of about 1% if they were to sell at current market rates.

In contrast, more established whales have a higher Unrealized Profit Ratio, which reached approximately 1.27 as of September 30. However, these older whales, who have kept their investments for over five months, have not experienced significant gains in this market cycle.

Ju concluded that these Bitcoin whales are unlikely to sell their holdings until they see liquidity from retail investors, which would push prices higher and present a better exit opportunity for them.

Impact of Middle East Tensions on Bitcoin Prices

The recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East between Iran and Israel led to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experiencing inflows of approximately $243 million outflows on October 1.

This marked a reversal from eight consecutive days of inflows and represented the most significant decline observed in nearly a month.

The geopolitical instability and concerns about a prolonged conflict have prompted some investors to predict a price floor of $54,000 or lower for Bitcoin as pressure mounts to divest from risk-sensitive assets that are vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations.

Time Needed for Bitcoin to Reach Previous Highs

Veteran analyst Willy Woo expressed a long-term optimistic view on Bitcoin’s potential. However, he also indicated that significant time would be required for Bitcoin to reclaim the $74,000 level.

Woo anticipates a relatively subdued October, with prices expected to trade sideways until November or December 2024.