According to findings from CoinMarketCap (CMC), Bitcoin is on pace to exceed its traditional four-year market cycle by approximately 100 days. This shift could signify the beginning of a supercycle fueled by factors such as institutional adoption and updated market conditions.

Understanding the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

The Bitcoin four-year cycle is a fundamental concept that illustrates how market dynamics fluctuate. These cycles are closely related to Bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years, reducing miner rewards when 210,000 blocks are mined.

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have a significant impact on its price, typically leading to bull markets peaking between 518 to 546 days post-halving, as noted in previous evaluations.

Citing the most recent halving event on April 20, 2024, the CMC report suggests that Bitcoin could achieve a new all-time high sooner than anticipated.

Estimations from the report indicate that Bitcoin is currently around 40.66% into its bull market and may peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025. The research indicates, however, that there are signs of slowing growth in infrastructure, which may reflect evolving market dynamics.

“This time, Bitcoin is ahead by about 100 days, pointing to a potential peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025. Despite this early acceleration, there are signs of slowing infrastructure growth, which could indicate that broader market dynamics are evolving.”

Factors mentioned that could signal a shift away from Bitcoin’s established cycle include increasing correlations with traditional assets like gold and technology stocks, alongside substantial institutional interest from players such as MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific.

Market Performance in Q3 2024

The report also analyzed the performance of different sectors within the crypto industry. It noted that while there was a rally towards the end of Q3, several sectors experienced significant losses, with storage, lending, and privacy sectors dropping by 39%, 37%, and 31%, respectively.

Moreover, sectors associated with decentralized finance (DeFi) have struggled amidst a shift towards “more speculative and consumer-focused sectors,” including artificial intelligence and media.

Global Landscape of Crypto Adoption

The report highlighted the U.S. as the largest market for cryptocurrency users with a 17% global share. Following the U.S., India ranks second with over 9% market share, notably recognized in Chainalysis’s crypto adoption index.

Brazil comes in third, holding an 8% share of the global cryptocurrency user base.

Interestingly, Bitcoin holds the title of the most popular cryptocurrency globally, with its market share ranging from 45% in Africa to 52% in Oceania.

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, ranked third in most regions with an average market share of around 13%. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) ranked second globally with an average share of 14%.

Notably, Toncoin, linked to the Telegram blockchain, also emerged as a significant player, especially in Africa, claiming a market share of 15%.